pre-open comment Thursday 3rd January
Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Aggressive Buying again on Wednesday. A high percentage of the time these green-at-top highs are tested the following day but the stats on that are not as reliable following a gap day which yesterday certainly was. Buyers are active and look to be back in control so not sure if we’ll see much backing and filling but that would be welcome; it would be good to see ES build time at a new level.
%Stocks>50dyma: Nyse 82% (>80 usually considered overbought) and Nasdaq 75%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
First Level Support = 1413 (3mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
Price location: Strong. All four major equity ETFs print well above their 1/2R levels (off Sep high).
Sentiment: On yesterday’s big up day my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was only slightly higher at 3.65 (from 3.34). Rydex traders seeem reluctant to climb on this rally and that is not usually bearish (contrarian).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? EURUSD: pre-open EURUSD is printing back below (just) 1.3117, the 24mn poc, for the first time in twelve days.
? Dollar Index: pre-open the Dollar Index is surprisingly strong and printing at 80.15 the major Support/Resisatnce level for this chart.
+ TLT: Pre-open has printed its lowest level since 17th September.
imo difficult to imply a bias for equities from these charts with the dollar higher today.
