posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 3rd March
ES has tested the High and Low of the 8day Value Area in the last two days and pre-open today is printing back at 1318, the 30day poc. The 8dayVAH today comes in at 1321.50 (dotted).
Dayframe: If there is consolidation above 1318 for more than the early part of today’s session then ES will find itself in a strong price location but I cannot initiate new longs until Significant Buying is marked again. I note that the red-at-bottom low on Tuesday was not tested during Wednesday’s session and it would be a rare event if that doesn’t occur before the end of the week.
First Level S/R = 1318.00 Support = 1281.50 (4mnth)
8dayVAL = 1297.00 8dayVAH = 1321.50
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex assets Ratio was down to 3.29 (from 3.55). This ratio is historically still very high. 3.94 (on 01/19) was the highest reading I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Chart prints above the important 1/2R at 1.3580. It is today probing up into the 1/2R off the July 2008 high at 1.3956 which is the next level of significant resistance.
+ UDX: Chart in weak position below the 1/2R at 78.53. Reached a new 75day low today.
+ TLT: has not been able to hold above the 6month poc at 91.80.
imo these charts are positive for equities. EURUSD chart is worth watching re the resistance level.
