posted 9.21 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 3rd May
ES has printed consistently in the price area around 1395 but not enough yet to lift the 4month poc to this level. Please read Tuesday’s comments (highlighted on graphic). The 2month VAH is still at 1404 (dotted).
The index ETFs are now printing above their 1/2R levels off March high. If they hold that would be a positive for continuation higher. The negative is the rapidly increasing optimism, see Sentiment below. Note the levels below though; if ES holds above 1395 it is ST Bullish and chart only indicates weakness in the longer timeframe if time is printed below 1386.
Potential Support/Resistance = 1395 (2month poc)
First Level Support = 1386 1/2R off March high
Second Level Support = 1366 (4month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up again on Wednesday to 5.43. I only have one reading in my database higher than this and that was on 3rd April at 5.64. Also, Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll reported Bears at 20.4% which is the lowest Bears since May last year. I have mentioned this number a few times this year and commented that the Bear% was higher than that typically seen at a top. This is no longer the case.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart currently holding above the four month poc Support at 1.3069.
? Dollar Index: printing back above 79.09 (12mnth poc) at a 7dy high.
? TLT: pre-open is printing the maj poc at 117.18.
imo these charts do not currently imply an obvious bias for equities.
