posted 08.50 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 4th April
On Wednesday Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked. The Value Area was lower and wider so this was Effective Selling on the dayframe. I can no longer assume Buyers are still in control of the dayframe. New long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Wednesday’s First Level poc Support at 1550 was tested; pre-open ES has printed as high as 1556.50. Red-at-bottom lows are usually (80%) tested within a day or two although the most recent on 31st March was not. Today, the minor (35day) poc, now at 1549, could be intraday Support or Resistance.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52%, Nasdaq 47%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1549 (35dy poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.07. The 60day low for this number is 3.49. Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
– Bonds TLT: printed a 24day high on Wednesday. Price location is stronger above the maj poc at 117.15. Momentum is positive and up.
– Oil USO: had a bad day yesterday and now prints back below 34.17, the 1/2R and 3year poc. Momentum (although positive) has turned down.
– Gold GLD: On Wednesday printed its lowest level since June last year. Momentum (although positive) is now down. Pre-open chart prints below 152.70, the12mn poc. Rydex Precious Metals Assets (investor) are at the lowest they’ve been since last July; the lowest level was in May.
– Silver SLV: Still in a weak price location printing below 27.87, the 12mn poc and on Wednesday reached its lowest level since last July.
? Dollar Index: Has today printed its highest level since August last year. Momentum (although positive) is down.
? EURUSD: The Major poc at 1.2777 has provided obvious Support now for six days. Price below that level would be extremely weak price location. However there is a positive divergence between PriceOsc and Price. This would be confirmed if the indicator turns up.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
