Pre-open commentThursday 4th June
See previous, highlighted comments. During Wednesday’s session another early probe above the 2117.50 Resistance was rejected and overnight ES tested the 2100 level. Market is once again consolidating, although in a range higher than April’s, and looks to be “waiting” for the next event. This is likely at the end of this week with the jobs data release and the Greek debt payment due. Price relative to the 10mn poc at 2107.00 is most important but Significant Buying above 2117.50 or Selling below 2095.50 (dashed) will most likley signal the next directional move. Bulls would want to see breadth measures improve, see below.
First Level Resistance = 2117.50 (minor poc)
First Level Support = 2107.00 (10mn poc)
Further Support = 2095.50 – dashed line
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 43%), Nasdaq 55% (from 50%), R2000 51% (from 43%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 11.71. Bear fund assets that I follow have fallen back and are close to the extreme low level of earlier in the year. Thta’s a concern. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed below the 12mn Time Support at an eight month low and has now reached the major Support at 117.14, the maj poc.
Dollar Index: is today probing 94.67, the 12mn Support. Price below this level would be weak price location. Dollar Bulls would want to see price printing back above 96.76, the 1/2R off March high.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected and last week broke below 115.12, the 12mn poc indicating further weakness.
Oil USO: in May printed its highest level since December and since early April has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location but Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative.
EURUSD: currently printing above the major 1/2R (1.1241) in a stronger price location and is today probing 1.1340, the 12mn Time Resistance.
