posted 05.50 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 4th October
Note: this was written at 05.45 a.m. et
Wednesday’s low was early in the session at 1435.50 – our First Level Support being 1435.00. The Value Area was higher and slightly wider. Obvious Support at a poc is encouraging in the ST. Further sign of strength would be Effective Buying marked above 1446.
ES rallied in early September and consolidated; the VAH of this minor range is 1454 and the VAL is 1328 (both dotted). These levels are dynamic, i.e. should the minor poc at 1435 migrate then so will these levels and that often gives a clue. If ES is to consolidate further then these two levels will likely cap the top and bottom of the range.
First Level S/R = 1446.00 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
First Level Support = 1435.00 (35dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13 (Wed Close 69.11). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Wed Close 3135.23). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Wed Close 2818.84).
Sentiment: Investors Intelligence reported Bulls lower at 46.8% (from 51%) and Bears slightly higher at 25.5%. This poll reads more Bearishness, interested to see if the AAII public poll concurs with this later today. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.50 (from 4.65). The ratio reached 5.51 on 09/18 – I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Major poc Support at 1.2777. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum is still down.
? Dollar Index: is printing between the major level at 80.15 and the 79.19 poc. High on Monday was 80.15. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
? TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price above that level would be a strong price location and a negative for equities. Momentum is up.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
