posted 9.10 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 5th April
Overnight ES has printed as low as 1384 which is a test of the 20dy VAL at 1386. VAL is the Value Area Low and 20days covers the current range that ES is in. If Buyers are still active then we should expect a Response if that level is tested. If there is no Response then it may be a clue that control of the dayframe is shifting. If that is the case then I would expect to mark Significant Selling below the 1395 poc but so far that hasn’t happened. As ES is now printing below 1395, that level now becomes First Level Resistance (instead of Support) and Bulls want to see ES printing time back above that level asap.
First Level Resistance = 1395 (30dy poc)
First Level Support = 1366 (45 dy poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.98 but Tuesday’s ratio at 5.64 is the highest ratio in my database. This is concerning as historically this ratio hitting new highs is a real warning for the market and suggests upside is limited at least.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart has fallen the last few days and currently prints at the four month poc (1.3069).
? Dollar Index: 80.15 is the most important level on this chart and currently UDX has ralled to just below that level
? TLT: prints below 116.22, its major poc.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon.
