Pre-open comment Thursday 5th January
Tuesday’s probe above the 4month VAH at 1265 may be a test-failure.
On Wednesday Responsive Buying was marked (green-at-bottom) but the Value Area was overlapping/lower so this is not Effective Buying. I would want to see Significant Sellers marked before anticipating further weakness, see yesterday’s comments highlighted on graphic.
Dayframe: Pre-open ES spiked up and found Resistance at yesterday’s poc around 1271. That’s interesting.
Support = ES 1256 (poc) SPY = 126.00
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 2.77 (from 2.62). If there is some more weakness here it will be interesting to see what happens to this ratio, i.e. do the Rydex traders try and “buy the dip”? Recent high is 2.96 (11/07).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). (Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Chart printing a new 15month low today.
– Dollar Index: is today printing back above the 80.15 (1/2R off the 2008 low) which is a stronger price location.
– TLT: the 117.88 Support (10month poc) has been maginally tested today but currently printing above. Key Chart = will Support hold.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities
