posted 08.27 a.m. est
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. Initially there was weakness on Wednesday but the rest of the session was spent climbing back. However, this intraday Buying was ultimately ineffective in the dayframe as the Value Area was lower and wider. The 4mn poc is at 2107.00 and I would want to see price printing time above that level before anticipating further strength. Just over one hour pre-open ES has printed above 2103. Since the recent high Sellers (red) have not been marked , which is a positive, but Significant Selling marked below 2107.00 would be a first sign of ST weakness. Price Momentum remains positive but down for all four major stock index ETFs.
First Level Resistance = 2107.00 (40day poc)
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 63%), Nasdaq 62% (from 65%), R2000 56% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 13.41. Monday’s ratio at 14.06 is the highest in the database and the first ratio above 14. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: reached a new high at the end of January but fell sharply in February. Chart is lower this week and pre-open today prints close to February’s low. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative but up.
Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since 2003.
Gold GLD: since probing the Resistance at 124.12 (major poc) five weeks ago, GLD has given back nearly all of January’s strong gains. There is Resistance at 117.62, the 1/2R off Nov low.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and fell sharply but rallied in early February. Pre-open today is printing above 18.6, the 1/2R off Jan low. which is a stronger price location if it can hold that level.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke below it last Thursday and has today printed below January’s low.
