pre-open comment Thursday 6th December
Buyers Responded (green-at-bottom) on Wednesday at exactly yesterday’s First Level Support which is the 1397 major poc. ES was then auctioned higher to probe yesterday’s First Level Resistance which is the 1413.50 (50dy poc). An overlapping, higher Value Area was generated on increased Volume. Yesterday’s Significant Buying eliminates new Short Trades for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again. You can see from the chart that both Buyers and Sellers have been active over the past few days. Buying marked above 1413.50 or Selling marked below 1397 will likely indicate the next directional move.
First Level Resistance = ES 1413.50 (50dy poc)
First Level Support = ES 1397 (maj poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% and Nasdaq 44%. Numbers >50 are supportive so this is mixed.
Price location. This is also mixed with QQQ and XLK (tech) relatively underperforming and printing below their 1/2R.
1/2R levels: SPY 141.40; IWM 81.55; DIA 130.45; QQQ 65.95.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.2. On Friday 16th Nov the ratio reached 2.57 which was the lowest since 7th June.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? EURUSD: Yesterday’s high at 1.3126 briefly tested the poc Resistance at 1.3117 – chart failed at this level in September and again in October.
+ Dollar Index: Chart now prints below 80.15 which is weak price location.
? TLT: pre-open is printing just above the 125.50 poc Resistance.
bias for equities: unclear in ST. If EURUSD confirms a failure at Resistance (if momentum turns down) and TLT manages to hold above Resistance then bias could change quickly.
