posted 07.50 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 6th June
On Wednesday an early probe above the 1626poc was immediately rejected (see chart) and later in the session Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked below that level. This is a further negative and at current levels I now need to see (at a minimum) Effective Buying above 1626 before considering new long trades on any timeframe.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 48%, Nasdaq 60%, R2000 61%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought. There is quite a marked difference here between the Nyse number and Nasdaq/R2000. The Nyse number is much weaker.
First Level Resistance = ES 1626 (prev poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.62 (from 4.50). This on a day when the market was sharply lower. Not much fear shown here by the Rydex traders and on a day like yesterday that’s not usually a good sign (contrarian). Two weeks ago the ratio reached 5.43 and I only have two readings higher than this in the database which were were at the market highs in April and September last year. The recent low for the ratio was 3.27 on 25th April.
Supporting Charts + or – or ? indicates bias for equities
+ Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. printing below the major poc at 117.15. Time printed below this level is weak price location. Last week chart reached its lowest level since April 2012.
– Oil USO: Currently printing below the Resistance around 34.20 which is weak price location. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
– Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May. Momentum, although negative, is up.
– Silver SLV: Recently printed its lowest level since October 2010.
? Dollar Index: Currently printing back below the 82.75 poc.
? EURUSD: In May chart found Support just above the major poc at 1.2777 and is currently printing at a nineteen day high above the Resistance at 1.3070 which is the 24mn poc. Momentum is up.
