posted 6.05 a.m. est
Pre-open Thursday 6th May
Applying my rules very strictly I have to mark active Significant Buyers yesterday – but only just. They Responded to a probe below the 1161.50 support. Problem I have is that my #1 dayframe rule says I cannot now be short in this timeframe until Sellers are marked again – and I will find that difficult. The Buying was not Effective (the Value Area was lower and wider) and although volume was well above average it was lower than Tuesday’s. If ES finds itself below 1161.50 during today’s session it is in a weak position and I would anticipate it will be heading lower still.
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down from 2.6 to 2.4. That’s a small change and I see no capitulation here which is still bearish imo.
The ISEE (equity only) index came in at 139 which is quite a bit lower than recent readings.
LT sentiment: The Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll still shows 3 times the number of Bulls to Bears. These guys haven’t turned bearish at all, in fact Bull% is up this week. This is also ST bearish.
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
? USDJPY: unclear
– EURUSD: new 12month low today; momentum and trend down.
– UDX: new multi-month high today, momentum and trend up.
– TLT: new high for 2010 on Wednesday; momentum and trend up.
These charts are bearish for equities
