posted 09.17 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 7th February
Wednesday’s session generated an overlapping, narrower Value Area. Responsive Buying (green-at-bottom) was marked. I’m not sure how significant that was but the Buyers didn’t let ES fall below 1500 during the session and strictly applying my rules new short trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again. In the ST as long as ES holds above 1495 it is a minor sign of strength.
First Level Support = 1495 (40 dy poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 84% and Nasdaq 75%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.50. The ratio on 01/30 was 4.81 which was the highest since late September. The ratio above that level would start to look excessive.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Currently having difficulty printing back above 117.15, the major poc. Time below this level is weak price location. Pre-open high today is 116.93.
? Commodities: Oil USO has been overbought technically but still printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Momentum indicator turning back up would be a positive for this chart if it holds above 34.17. Gold GLD has spent nearly all of the last four weeks consolidating above the 161.0 major poc which is a sign of strength if that level holds. Silver SLV is a Key Chart. It has again rallied to 31.25, its major poc, but has not exceeded it.
? Dollar Index: Chart has spent the last eight days printing below 79.80, the 2yr poc and is now finding Resistance at that level having rallied a little this week. Momentum is up.
+ EURUSD: Chart has printed a seven day low today but so far holding above 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) since it cleared that Resistance ten days ago.
imo these charts are mixed and although they most likely have a positive bias for equities this could change quickly as they all print close to important levels.
