Pre-open comment Thursday 7th May
Please read yesterday’s highlighted comments. Last two Value Areas have been generated below 2095.50 (4mn poc) which indicates weakness and a big positive would be time spent back above that level. However, the more important LT Support at 2045.00 (7mn poc) has not yet been tested. Overnight ES auctioned as low as 2057.00 but recovered and one hour pre-open today was printing 2075.00. More fear (see Rydex below) and an improvement in breadth would aslo be helpful.
First Level Resistance = 2095.50 (4mn poc)
First Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc)
Dayframe: The 1/2R off April high is at 2088, if the low at 2057 holds.
ETFs: SPY closed at 208.04, having tested below its 6mn poc which is at 207.92. This is a good level to monitor again today as is IWM 122.35, its 3mn poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 43%), Nasdaq 38% (from 39%), R2000 34% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 10.80 (from 11.63). The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed at its lowest level since early December. Momentum is down and negative. Support at 117.14, maj poc.
Dollar Index: is today below 94.67 (12mn poc) in a weakened price location.
Gold GLD: closed below 115.12, the 18mn poc in a weak price location.
Oil USO: closed at its highest level since December and for three weeks has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: in February broke below the major 1/2R at 1.1241. There was a swift decline but chart has rallied back and is now probing above that level
