S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 8th January

posted 09.08 a.m. est

Overnight ES has been printing above 2030 and the 4mn poc has now migrated back down to 2035.00, see previous, highlighted comments. This is not necessarily a negative. This poc is the controlling price of a distribution which (imo) began in mid October – and the VAL (value area low) of this distribution is currently 1991.00 (dashed) which was tested at Tuesday’s low. If ES can print time above 2035.00 it would put it in a strong price location and Significant Buying marked above that level would indicate higher.

First Level S/R = 2035.00 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 197.20 (8mn poc)

Stock Index ETFs: Pre-open today SPY has recovered back above 203.88, the 3mn poc and Key Chart IWM is printing back above 116.00 (its 18mn poct).

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 35%), Nasdaq 42% (from 36%), R2000 45% (from 39%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.74 (from 10.92). The ratio is down nearly 25% now in five days but it started from an extreme high level. As I wrote yesterday “we may need to see some fear here before a low can be found” and with the ratio above 9 we haven’t seen much of it. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: exceeded the 2012 high on Tuesday.
Dollar Index:higher again today to its highest level since December 2005.
Gold GLD: remains in a weak LT price location below the 119.87 maj poc but pre-open today is printing above 114.78, the 8mn poc.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and on Tuesday printed a new low.
EURUSD: probed the 4mn Time Resistance at 1.2475 last month and is lower from there, printing below 1.2300, the maj poc, and today has printed its lowest level since 2005.