Pre-open comment Thursday 8th September
On Wednesday I marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) as ES probed above the 30dayVAH. Stats suggest that a green-at-top high is tested the following day about 80% of the time but on a gap day this is not a reliable stat.
Dayframe: Strength on this timeframe would be indicated by further Significant Buying marked above 1153 and ES consolidating above 1222.25. Until that happens I will anticipate Sellers re-entering and that would be a go-with imo.
Resistance = 1222.25 (1/2R off May high) (123.72 SPY)
1st Level Support = 1153 (1/2R off Aug low) (SPY 116.89)
2nd Level Support = 1142 (35dy poc) (SPY 114.27)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly at 1.45. The recent low for this ratio on 22nd Aug was 1.10, the lowest reading since Sep 2010.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Has broken below the Major poc at 1.4212 and has printed a new 40day low today. note there is major 1/2R Support just below current price at 1.3965.
– Dollar Index: Currently printing above the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: This week printing its highest level since Jan 2009.
imo these charts have lined up negatively for equities.
