Pre-open Thursday 9th July
Wednesday generated the seventh consecutive Value Area below 2095.00, the 10mn poc. This is weak price location. Like Tuesday, there was another test below 2045.00 (former poc) but again no time has been printed below this level (that would be a negative development). The minor (22dy) poc is at 2074.00 and ES has found Resistance here this week which is weak price action. I remain cautious and would want to see Significant Buying marked above 2095.00 before considering new longs. Breadth numbers deteriorated again, see below.
Second Level Resistance = 2095.00
First Level Resistance = 2080.25 (1/2R off May high)
First Level Support at 2045.00 (prev poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 26% (from 32%), Nasdaq 32% (from 40%), R2000 37% (from 43%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.3. In June the ratio fell to 8.78 which was a seven month low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: on Wednesday TLT closed above 117.14, the maj poc, and printed its highest level since 1st June.
Dollar Index: 96.76 is the 1/2R off March high and this is the obvious Resistance which was probed on Tuesday. Today the index prints below that level.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected. GLD remains in a weak location and this week has printed close to this years low.
Oil USO: the 16mn poc recently migrated to 20.24. USO closed below that level for seven consecutive days and this week has fallen heavily. The 1/2R off the March low is at 18.55 and this is now Resistance.
EURUSD: is today printing below 1.1340, the 12mn poc.
