pre-open comment Thursday 9th May
Wednesday’s session generated a higher, narrower Value Area and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked again.
Dayframe: ES average Weekly Hi-Lo range is around 34 and currently Monday to Wednesday Range is 22. If the range is to expand the odds would favour higher as Buyers are active and 80% of the time green-at-top highs are tested within a day (or two). Note how previous two sessions responded to a test of previous day’s poc and indicate ST strength. Wednesday’s poc was 1627.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78% Nasdaq 64% R2000 67% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1581 (30dy poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)
Rydex Assets Ratio: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 4.10. So far this month the ratio has fallen as the market has rallied. Remember this is a contrarian indicator and the Rydex traders are not as optimistic as they were in September or February when the ratio got above 5. Ratio reached a low of 3.22 on 4th Jan and a high of 5.22 on 13th Feb.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ Bonds TLT: Has stalled and turned down from the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Momentum turned negative.
? Oil USO: closed above the important Resistance around 34.20. Time printed above this level would put the chart back into a strong price location. Momentum has turned positive.
? Gold GLD: Fell steeply last month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum has turned positive.
– Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and last month printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative but up.
? Dollar Index: KEY CHART. Currently printing below the 2month poc at 82.75 and above the 1/2R level at 81. Breakout above or below these levels will likely indicate next directional move.
? EURUSD: Met Resistance last week at 1.3228 (1/2R off February high) and is currently printing below that level but above the 24mn poc at 1.3070.
imo these charts have a slight positive bias for equities.
