S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 9th October

posted 09.23 a.m. est

Tuesday’s red-at-bottom low was tested during Wednesday’s session but Buyers Reacted (green-at-bottom) in the same area of price as they did four days earlier, i.e. below 1920. The Value Area was lower and wider which is no indication that any Buying activity is yet Effective but ES closed above the 1949 poc. Pre-open today the 1967 Resistance has been probed, see previous highlighted comments.

ES First Level Resistance = 1966/67 (min 1/2R and poc)
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (poc)
ES Major Support = 1872

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 23% (from 15%), Nasdaq 27% (from 19%), R2000 25% (from 14%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 7.97. The recent sell-off in the SPY has been about 4.5% but the ratio has remained above 7. The previous seven sell-offs (since start of 2013) of 4% or more have seen the ratio below 6.5. As a measure of fear this indicates Rydex retail traders have not become very fearful on this correction.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT KEY Chart: printing above 117.15 (maj poc) in a strong price location. iDollar Index: Printed a new four year high on Friday but has corrected from there.
Gold GLD: Last week the chart tested the Jan 2014 and June 2013 lows and is currently holding this proven chart Support. Therefore price below last week’s low may spark another round of selling.
Oil USO KEY Chart: Sold-off since mid June and found Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low). This was broken last week and is today printing its lowest level since June 2013.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and on Friday printed a new two year low.