Pre-open comment Tuesday 11th March
No Significant Selling has been marked for eleven days. First sign of weakness in the LT would be Effective Selling marked below 1835.50. Breadth is supportive, see below, and Key Charts imply equity strength, see below, but Momentum (PriceOsc), although positive, is down for all four stock index ETFs.
Dayframe: The minor (10dy) poc migrated slightly higher to 1876. This may be a useful intraday level to monitor re ST strength/weakness. Pre-open ES is printing above that level.
First Level Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1792.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72% (from 74%), Nasdaq 69% (unchanged), R2000 70% (unchanged). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher 7.53. Last Thursday the ratio reached 7.82 which is the highest in my database indicating that the Rydex traders are extremely bullish. Historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
+ KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: is printing above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
+ KEY Chart EURJPY: printing above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high, in a strong price location.
+ KEY Chart Bonds TLT: pre-open today is printing below 106.34 (10mn poc) in a weaker price location.
Dollar Index: has probed below 79.76, the maj poc, but is currently printing just above that level.
Gold GLD: pre-open today is holding its strong price location above 127.20, the 18mn poc. Silver (SLV) is in a weaker price location below 21.02 (2yr poc).
Oil USO: Pre-open today is holding 36.11, the 1/2R Support. Momentum, although positive, is down.
EURUSD: Currently holding above 1.367, the 12mn poc, in a strong price location.
