posted 8.27 a.m. ET
Pre-open comment Tuesday 11th October
Aggressive Buying was marked again. Usually (80%) a green-at-top high is tested the following day but that stat is less reliable follwoing a gap day which Monday was. Value Area was higher, narrower on below average Volume.
If ES does test yesterday’s high then the Value Area High of the current (2month) range at 1197 is the obvious point where Sellers may Respond.
1st Level Support = 1158 40dypoc (SPY 114.85 4mnthpoc)
1st Level Resistance =1197 VAH (dashed line)
2nd Level Resistance = 1214.50 1/2R off May high (SPY 122.30)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 1.53 (from 1.26). Bear fund assets that I follow were down 13% to a 30day low. Also the ISEE (equity-only) Index came in at 236 which is the highest single number since late July apart from the 290 recorded on 09/23.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Broke Major Support in early September but has recovered back above 1.3416 (1/2R Support off June 2010 low).
? Dollar Index: Last week printed its highest level since January but momentum (PriceOsc) has been lower for ten consecutive days.
– TLT: Last week printed a new high testing again the old high from December 2008. Currently printing back below that level.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities in the LT but unclear in the ST.
