Pre-open comment Tuesday 12th July
Chart broke convincingly below the maj poc at 1327 which supported nearly all price action last week – I take that as a negative development. With price where it is currently, 1327 is now a level of resistance that ES must overcome before I can look at the long side.
Overnight ES has printed as low as 1295.25 but has recovered and pre-open prints close to the 1/2R off the May high around 1310. As I wrote yesterday if Buyers are still in control..a probe down to this area of price “should” find them Responding. Price below 1310 increases the chances of further weakness.
1st Level S/R = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
2nd Level Resistance = 1327 (maj poc) (132.18 SPY)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher yesterday at 3.45, a 30day high. With the market sharply lower that suggest the retail money is thinking “buy dips” which is not bullish (contrarian).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Chart has printed a 4month low today and tested the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965.
– Dollar Index: Currently prints above the 75.65 poc and reached a 3month high today.
– TLT: Chart currently prints above the 3yr_poc at 96.28. If Chart can print some time above this level it would indicate higher.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
