posted 08.32 a.m. est
Monday’s open was just above 2035.00 but ES immediately rejected this level and sold off. A lower, narrower Value Area on less Volume was generated. Pre-open today 2035 has been probed again but no time has been printed above that price, see previous, highlighted comments. Significant Buying marked above this level would indicate higher, Bulls would also look for breadth numbers to improve, see below.
First Level Resistance = 2035.00 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 197.20 (8mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44% (from 47%), Nasdaq 44% (from 47%), R2000 46% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.41 which is a 40 day low. Bull fund assets that I follow are now down nearly 30% from their extreme high level in November. If not fear, we are now seeing some nervousness in this data which is a developing positive (contrarian). In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT:exceeded the 2012 high last week and is printing a new high pre-open today.
Dollar Index:last week printed its highest level since December 2005.
Gold GLD: remains in a weak LT price location below the 119.87 maj poc but pre-open today is printing close to that Resistance. Time spent above this level would be positive.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and pre-open today has printed yet another new low.
EURUSD: probed the 4mn Time Resistance at 1.2475 last month and is lower from there, printing below 1.2300, the maj poc, and last week printed its lowest level since 2005.
