posted 08.44 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Tuesday 15th April
Friday’s red-at-bottom low was not tested during Monday’s session although it was tested pre-open yesterday. Price above 1828.50 (Friday’s session high) would negate any ST negative implications of that Aggressive Selling but unless ES can print back above 1835.50 it remains in a very weak price location and I will not consider new longs on any timeframe. Pre-open today SPY is testing its equivalent 183.43 poc Resistance. All four major Stock Index ETFs have Momentum negative and down. Breadth numbers are not supportive, see below.
First Level Resistance = ES 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Breadth: Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 40%), Nasdaq 25% (from 24%), R2000 29% (from 28%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 6.26, a 37day low. The ratio reached 8.39 on 03/13 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders were extremely bullish at that point and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
– KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: prints below its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
? KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing almost at 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: recently tested and held, the 2year poc Support at 107.24 and has rallied from there.
Dollar Index: is today printing just above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: yesterday there was a test above 127.20, the 18mn poc, but that has been rejected and pre-open today chart is sharply lower.
Oil USO: printing in a strong price location above 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high.
EURUSD: Printing above 1.3673, the 12mn poc Support. Momentum is negative but up.
