posted 09.08 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 16th April
Not a good day. Weakness from the Open with First Level Resistance not tested at all during the session. Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked and the Value Area was lower and wider so this is Effective Selling. New long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Negative divergence between higher prices and Price Osc (see SPY in eBook) was confirmed by Price Osc turning down and breadth deteriorated badly (see below).
If I was looking for any kind of positive here it has to be that (so far) First Level Support has held, e.g. ES 1548.50 was tested but little time was printed below it. However, historically red-at-bottom lows are tested during the following session (or two) 80% of the time and that low is below First Level Support. Today is an important test for the Bulls, can they hold charts above important Support e.g. SPY 155.80 and IWM 90.44.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (down from 64%), Nasdaq 38% (down from 55%). Numbers >50 are supportive. You can see the deterioration here.
Resistance (minor) = ES 1582.50 (10dy poc)
Potential Support or Resistance today = ES 1548.50 (5month poc)
Support = ES 1517.50 (prev poc)
VAL of the higher range of prices since early March is at ES 1538 (dashed).
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher on Monday at 4.78 (from 4.60). This may indicate the Rydex traders are seeing weakness as opportunity and usually that is not a good sign for the market in the ST.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. This Resistance has not yet been overcome.
– Oil USO: Fell sharply again on Monday to its lowest level since December.
– Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Fell steeply on Friday and again on Monday to its lowest level for two years.
– Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January. On Monday chart printed its lowest level since October 2010.
+ Dollar Index: ST weak location printing below the 2month poc at 82.75. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative and down.
+ EURUSD: found Support at the Major poc at 1.2777 earlier this month and is now attempting to consolidate above the 24mn poc at 1.3070, which is stronger price location if it can hold this level. Has printed a 32day high today.
imo these charts have a slight ST positive bias for equities.
