Pre-open comment Tuesday 16th June
Note: I am now following the September contract. Monday generated a lower Value Area. Last week the 10mn poc migrated to 2107.00 but time spent at 2095.50 is almost the same so I will monitor both levels. Pre-open today the September contract is printing below 2095.50 in a weak price location. I want to see ES back above this level before considering the long side. Both breadth and price momentum also need to improve – Breadth deteriorated on Monday, see below.
Key Charts/Levels this week: SPY weak, closed below 207.92 (9mn); IWM strong, closed above 124.50 (7mn).
First Level Resistance = 2095.50
Second Level Resistance = 2107.00
CP Market Charts: All major Market Charts are negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 41%), Nasdaq 53% (from 56%), R2000 48% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.86. It fell to 9.14 last week which is close to the 7mn low at 9.0. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed just above 117.14, the maj poc. Price below this level would be very weak price location.
Dollar Index: currently prints just above 94.67, the 12mn Support. Price below this level would be weak price location.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected and last recently printed its lowest level since March.
Oil USO: in May printed its highest level since December and since early April has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: currently printing just below 1.1340, the 12mn Time Resistance. Price above this level would be stronger price location.
