S&P emini analysis, pre-open 18th August 2015.
I marked Reactive Buying (green-at-bottom) and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) on Monday. This is a positive ST indication but ES needs to hold above 2095.00 before I can anticipate further strength. Thirty minutes pre-open today ES prints below that level.
Resistance = 2107.00 (poc)
Support/Resistance today = 2095.00 (maj poc)
Support = 2080.25 (1/2R)
Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative for all four Stock Index ETFS but has turned up. Breadth numbers need to improve, see below. See also Sentiment, below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 41%), Nasdaq 37% (from 34%), R2000 40% (from 37%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 8.78 which is close to the eight month low on 07/14 at 8.67. Bear Fund Assets rose sharply on Monday to an eight month high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Last week printed its highest level since April. Momentum (PriceOsc) is still positive but has turned lower. There is Resistance at 126.69, the 1/2R off this year’s high. Futures indicate a lower open today for TLT.
Dollar Index: currently printing very close to 96.76, the 1/2R off March high. Price printing time above this level would be stronger location.
Gold GLD: Long term charts for Gold indicate major Support at the July price low. “If” this is broken Gold (and GLD) would be in a very weak price location.
Oil USO: closed on Monday at a new low.
EURUSD: is today printing above 1.0961, the 1/2R off March low but there is Resistance at 1.1241, major 1/2R.
