posted 08.10 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 18th June
Note: We are now using the ES September contract. The 1/2R level off May high has therefore changed, see below.
The 25day poc migrated to 1636 which is close to the 1/2R at 1635.50.
If ES (Sep) can print some time above 1636 it would be improved price location. Sign of strength would be Significant Buying being marked above that level. I have dotted in the VAH 1657 and VAL 1622 which covers the higher price range since early May.
We’ve been watching stock index ETFs relative to their 1/2R levels as follows: SPY 164.66; IWM 98.05; QQQ 73.21; DIA 151.72. Ninety minutes pre-open they all print very close to these levels.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57%, Nasdaq 64%, R2000 64%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Potential intraday S/R = 1635.50 (1/2R) – 1636.00 (25dy poc)
First Level Support = ES 1628 (60dy poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.32. Last Thursday’s ratio at 4.00 was a 32 day low and showed (at last) some bears emerging. Watching the ratio relative to its recent high which was 5.43 on 22nd May (May’s high day) and its recent low which was 3.27 on 25th April.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: In a weak price location below 117.15, the major poc. Last week chart printed its lowest level since April 2012.
Oil USO: Chart now prints above the 34.20 Resistance area. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May.
Silver SLV: Last week chart printed its lowest level since Oct 2010.
Dollar Index: Broke the Support at the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Next Support is the major poc at 80.15. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Has today printed its highest level since February and above 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is up and positive.
