posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open Tuesday 19th October
ES found support just below First Level S/R on Monday, in fact at Friday’s poc (see chart). After rallying back above First Level S/R ES built Monday’s Value Area above Thursday’s and Friday’s. Nothing negative in that performance.
Dayframe: Pre-open ES is probing below 1169, the 5day VAL. I would want to see price recover and quickly reject this level to remain bullish in the ST. Acceptance below 1169 implies lower in the very near term and possibly a correction. Bulls would want ES holding/consolidating above 1172.50.
First Level S/R: 1172.50 (minor poc)
More important support at 1155.5 (15daypoc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down again from 1.86 to 1.79 but the ISEE (equity-only) Index came in at 219, another high number. This lifted the 10day ma to 205.80 the highest since April (in mid-April the high for the 10day ma was 249). VIX intraday low was 18.88 and closed at 19.09. Recent low for the VIX was just below 18.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: new low for this chart last week.
? EURUSD: Major 1/2R at 1.3965 (off the 2008 high) in play. Chart printing below that level pre-open. Positive for equities only if it can recover back above this level.
+ UDX: New ten month low last week.
+ TLT: new two month low for this chart last week.
imo these charts are mixed and do not have a bias for equities.
