Pre-open comment Tuesday 1st April
Monday’s session generated a higher, narrower, Value Area. Enough time was spent at 1864 for the minor (25dy) poc to migrate to this level (down from 1872). As long as ES holds above this level it is in a strong price location in the ST.
Breadth numbers improved yesterday, see below.
Intraday S/R today = 1864 (25dy poc)
First Level Support = 1852 (minor 1/2R ES Jun)
Second Level Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70% (from 60%), Nasdaq 51% (from 42%), R2000 59% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 7.86. I have only three readings higher than this, all in March including 8.39 on 03/13which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
+ KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: printing above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
+ KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: pre-open is printing above 107.24, the 2year poc and printed an eight month high last week.
Dollar Index: printing above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: printing below 127.20, the 18mn poc in a weak price location and printed a 33day low on Monday. Momentum remains down. SLV printed a 35day low last week.
Oil USO: Pre-open is printing above 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: Printed a two year high in March. Off that high with Momentum down but still holding a strong price location above 1.3673, the 12mn poc.
