pre-open comment Tuesday 20th August
Monday’s session generated a lower/overlapping, wider Value Area and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked again. Some daily indicators are technically oversold but with Sellers in control of the dayframe and breadth numbers deteriorating (see below) Buyers need to make an Effective appearance before I would consider new longs.
SPY Support at 164.90 was reached on Monday. Pre-open chart prints a little above this level. Price printing time below that level would suggest further weakness. Good chart level to monitor.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46%, Nasdaq 49%, R2000 43%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
1st Level Resistance = ES 1686.00 (3mn poc)
1st Level Support = ES 1627.00 (5mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.44. Last week it reached 4.07, a 40dy high. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: A minor rally w/e 08/09 found Resistance at the 4mn poc. Chart printed a two year low on Monday.
Oil USO: pre-open chart prints just below the maj poc at 37.93. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: Chart approaches Resistance at 34.17, the 12mn poc. Time spent above this level would put the chart in a much stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price printing time back above that level.
EURUSD: Has today printed a six month high and currently prints just above the 1/2R Resistance (off June 2010 low) at 1.3416.
