posted 5.14 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Tuesday 20th September
Note: This was written at 5a.m. edt.
Buyers Responded (green-at-bottom) to an early probe below Monday’s 1st Level Support at 1183. ES then spent enough time at 1190 to lift the 45dy poc to this level which is now 1st Level Support.
Dayframe: As long as ES holds above 1190 I would expect some progress (maybe slowly) higher. However, if Significant Selling is marked below that level it would put the ST analysis back in line negatively with the LT analysis. A further indication of strenth would come if ES can print some time above the 1/2R Resistance at 1216.25.
1st Level Resistance = 1216.25 (1/2R off May high) (123.72 SPY)
1st Level Support ES = 1190 (45dy poc) (119.37 SPY 25dy poc)
2nd Level Support = 1147 (1/2R off Aug low) (116.89 SPY)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up at 1.39 (from 1.17). Bear Fund assets that I follow were down 12%.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Has broken below Major Support at 1.4212 (maj poc) and 1.3965 (maj 1/2R).
– Dollar Index: Currently printing above the 74.96 poc and reached a six month high last week.
– TLT: Printing well above the Maj 1/2R at 105.22 and yesterday printed its highest level since Jan 2009.
imo these charts have lined up negatively for equities.
