posted 9.24 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Tuesday 21st June
I marked Responsive Buying on Monday (green-at-bottom). ES opened just below Monday’s First Level S/R at 1265.50 and immediately auctioned above it. Value Area was overlapping/higher and narrower so this cannot be called Effective Buying but ST Bulls made some progress.
Longframe: Analysis is negative – but Sentiment numbers suggest a ST rally is likely.
Dayframe: The next level of Resistance that ES has to overcome is 1282.50 (SPY 129.67) and ES pre-open high is 1281.75. ST Bulls would want to see that level exceeded and hopefully some time printed above. If ES prints back below 1265.50 (SPY 127.50) it is once again in a weak price location and further weakness would be expected.
First Level Suport = 1265.50 (SPY = 127.50)
First Level Resistance = 1282.50 (prev poc) (SPY = 129.67)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 2.0, the lowest level since November.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: 1.3920 to 1.3965 is a band of maj LT support with 1.450 min ST Resistance (1/2R off May high). Chart currently prints between these levels. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
? Dollar Index: Chart found resistance at the descending trendline off the major high in June 2010. Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
? TLT: Has been oscillating around the 3yr poc at 96.28. Needs to break above the major 1/2R at 98.32 to confirm another leg up but chart is OB so this may be a problem.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to imply a ST bias for equities.
