S&P 500 emini pre-open Tuesday 21st October
posted 09.14 a.m. est
Dayframe: Minor signs of strength on this timeframe. On Monday I marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) for the first time in eighteen days. Reactive Buying (red-at-bottom) was also marked just above the 1872 poc. Both Friday’s and Monday’s Value Areashave been generated above that level which remains a critical price to monitor. Monday’s Volume was low (34% less than the 20day average). The minor 1/2R off September’s high is at 1913.75. Post open this could be intraday Support or Resistance. Further positives would be Breadth numbers improving (see below) and stronger price location on Key Charts (see below).
Key Charts/Levels: DIA 164.23 (maj poc) pre-open price prints at that level, XLK 38.42 (maj 1/2R) price closed below that level, XLF 21.99 (2yr poc) pre-open price prints above that level.
ES First Level S/R = 1913.75 (1/2R off Sep high) eq SPY = 191.90
ES Second Level Support = 1872.00 (maj poc) eq SPY = 187.68
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 25% (from 18%), Nasdaq 28% (from 24%), R2000 34% (from 28%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.83, the first time the ratio has been below 5 since April 17th (close to the price low).
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: spiked violently higher last week to a two year high followed by a sharp reaction from there. But as long as chart holds above 117.14 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location in the LT.
Dollar Index: recently printed a four year high but has corrected a little from there.
Gold GLD: earlier in the month the chart tested the Jan 2014 and June 2013 lows and is currently up off this proven chart Support at a 30dy high. Price below these lows would likely spark another round of selling.
Oil USO: The potential Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) was broken earlier this month and chart has been sharply lower from there to its lowest level since June 2012.
EURUSD: earlier in the month printed a two year low. There is Support lower at 1.2300
