posted 5.05 a.m et
Pre-open comment Tuesday 22nd November
ES (and SPY) found Support on Monday just above yesterday’s Second Level Support which was the 1/2R off Oct low – these levels become today’s First Level Support.
The poc at 1189 (see eBook) becomes First Level S/R – Support or Resistance depending where ES Opens (this written 5a.m.).
Note that Momentum (Price Osc) for all four major index ETFs has now crossed below zero and all four print below the 1/2R level off the year’s High price. I’m very cautious here. At these levels I would want to see the ETFs printing back above those 1/2R levels before considering new longs.
First Level Resistance = 1214.50 1/2R off May high, (SPY 122.30)
First Level S/R = 1189 (poc – see eBook), SPY 119.45 (poc)
First Level Support = 1178.50 1/2R off Oct low, (SPY 118.42)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 2.36 (from 1.98). To see the ratio higher on a down day like Monday is not usually ST Bullish. Other Rydex indicators however did not fit with this, e.g. Rydex Money Market Assets Fd (Investor class) reached a nineteen day high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Printed a 28day low last week. Recently broke below the 1.3635 poc putting it back in a weak price location. Momentum down for sixteen days.
– Dollar Index: Printed a 30day high on Monday. Prints above the major level at 76.27 (1/2R off the May low) and above the 77.05 min poc. Momentum up for sixteen days.
– TLT: Printed a 32day high on Monday. Prints above the 5mnth poc at 116.34 and above the minor 1/2R off Oct high at 117.42. Momentum up for sixteen days.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
