posted 09.03 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 23rd April
On Tuesday I marked Significant Buying for the first time in nine days – Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) which means that new short trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Selleing is marked again. Value Area was overlapping/higher and the VAH at 1558 was probed. Overnight ES set back a little but found Support at 1548.50, the 5mn poc and pre-open has rallied back into the 1560s. 1562 is the minor 1/2R Resistance off the recent high but as long as ES holds the 5mn poc it is back in a stronger price location.
Index ETFs: Over the last few days DIA and QQQ found Support at their important poc levels discussed in the last webcast and pre-open today IWM and SPY are printing back above their pocs 90.44 and 155.80 respectively. Bulls would want to see these levels hold.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% Nasdaq 39%. Numbers above 50 are considered supportive. Bulls need to see these numbers improve.
Potential Support or Resistance intraday = 1562 (1/2R off April high)
First Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (prev poc)
Re Value Area since early March: VAH=1558; VAL=1538 (dashed).
Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.45 which is the lowest since 4th Jan.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. pre-open today is trying to print above the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Will it fail back below this level? That would be a positive for equities.
– Oil USO: Last week printed its lowest level since June last year.
– Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Has fallen steeply this month to its lowest level for two years.
– Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and has today printed its lowest level since October 2010.
? Dollar Index: KEY CHART. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative but up. Is today attempting to print above the 2month poc at 82.75.
? EURUSD: Printed a 11day low today below the 24mn poc at 1.3070. Momentum is positive and up.
Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index. Not clear enough here to imply a bias for equities.
