posted 09.20 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Tuesday 25th March
Monday generated a lower, narrower Value Area and the session low was a probe into the VAL of the current price range at 1843 (dashed). All Value Areas this month have been printed above 1835.50, the 6mn poc, and that means that any Significant Selling marked recently has been Responsive in the longer timeframe and currently ES is still holding a strong price location. Price below 1835.50 would be first sign of weakness in the LT.
First Level Resistance = 1872 (2mn poc)
First Level Support = 1852 (minor 1/2R ES Jun)
Second Level Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64% (from 68%), Nasdaq 54% (from 63%), R2000 61% (from 67%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 6.75 (from 7.85). On 03/13 the ratio reached 8.39 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
+ KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: printing above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
? KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing just slightly above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: printing above 107.24, the 2year poc.
Dollar Index: now printing back above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: printing back below 127.20, the 18mn poc in a weaker price location. Momentum remains down. SLV prints a 30day low today.
Oil USO: Pre-open is printing just below 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high.
EURUSD: Printed a two year earlier in the month but lower last week with Momentum down.
