pre-open comment Tuesday 27th August
ST analysis improved last week. SPY held important Support and breadth improved. LT analysis has not confirmed. Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating Buyers active on the weekly timeframe but the weekly bar was lower and narrower so this was not Effective Buying on this timeframe.
ES: The 5mn poc migrated to 1644.50. Last week I marked Significant Buying three times and Significant Selling twice. There was encouragement for Bulls; the last six Value Areas have, more or less, been generated above the 1644.50 poc. On Monday I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) but the Value Area was higher and wider so this was not Effective Selling. Significant Selling marked below 1644.50 would obviously be a negative.
SPY: Pre-open today, as I write, SPY is printing at 164.90, the 4mn poc Support. Price below this level is weak location.
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System remained negative for Nyse, remained neutral for Nasdaq and remained positive for U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 54%, UK 69%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.22 which is a 22day low. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: A minor rally w/e 08/09 found Resistance at the 4mn poc. Chart printed a two year low last week.
Oil USO: Difficult chart currently giving few clues relative to the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93 its maj poc.
Gold GLD: Chart is attempting to print time above the Resistance at 134.17, the 12mn poc. This is stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level.
EURUSD: Prints above the Support band between the 4mn poc at 1.3257 and the 1/2R at 1.3228 but yet to overcame Resistance at 1.3418, the 1/2R of 2010 low.
