Pre-open comment Tuesday 28th October
I’m wartching IWM and ES. ST Bullish would be IWM printing some time above the 111.64 poc (which it has not done yet) and ES printing time above 1970. ST Bearish would be IWM turning down from its poc and Sellers Reacting around the 1970 level. We should see one or the other today. Bulls would also want to see the Breadth numbers improving above 50% (see below). See Sentiment (below).
ES First Level S/R today = 1962.00 (6mn poc Dec contract)
ES Second Level Support = 1913.75 (1/2R off Sep high) eq SPY = 191.90
ES Major Support = 1872.00 (maj poc) eq SPY = 187.68
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 43%), Nasdaq 40% (from 38%), R2000 47% (fropm 46%) Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply higher at 7.2 (from 6.15), a 13day high, largely due to Bear fund asserts that I follow being down 15%. This indicator needs to be watched closely.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: spiked violently higher recently to a two year high followed by a sharp reaction from there. But as long as chart holds above 117.14 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location in the LT.
Dollar Index: recently printed a four year high.
Gold GLD: earlier in the month the chart tested the Jan 2014 and June 2013 lows and is up off this proven chart Support. Price below these lows would likely spark another round of selling.
Oil USO: The potential Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) was broken earlier this month and chart has been sharply lower from there to its lowest level since June 2012.
EURUSD: earlier in the month printed a two year low. There is Support lower at 1.2300
