posted 9.29 a.m. est
Significant Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked on Monday following an early probe to a 12day high. This was Ineffective Selling because Monday’s Value Area was overlapping Friday’s. Even so, Stats tell me that any (red-at-bottom) low has an 80% chance of being tested the following day (although the most recent one on 16th March was not). Long trades are now eliminated for me until Significant Buying (green) is marked again.
Dayframe: 1308.50 is now the 30day poc. This could be intra-day Support or Resistance and may give a clue early on re direction for the rest of the session. Overnight ES has been as high as 1308.25.
First Level S/R = 1308.50 (30day poc)
Support = 1293.50 (5mth poc)
Resistance = 1317-1318 (3mnth VAH / 2mth poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 2.72 (a 9day high) but early last week reached its lowest level since early December. The ISEE (equity-only) index came in at 292 which is an extremely high number – the highest since 6th January.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Failed to test the November high at 1.4282 but still in strong price location.
? UDX: Probe below November’s low last week was rejected with Dollar Index hitting a 6day high yesterday. Still in a weak price location but the daily Price Oscillator has turned up again from positive divergence.
? TLT: In a stronger price location above the 91.82 poc but only just.
These charts are mixed – difficult to infer a bias for equities.
