Pre-open comment Tuesday 29th November
Overnight the 8month poc migrated higher to 1196. ES rallied strongly on Monday. This may be just a rally to relieve the technically oversold condition and to frustrate the Bears we saw emerging last week but as I write (5a.m. et) ES prints above the 1196 poc and that is a stronger price location. If ES can hold above that level and the %Stocks>50dyma numbers can improve a little more (both Nyse and Nasdaq are around the 40 level) then we may well see more strength in the ST. I would want to see evidence of Significant Buying (green) before considering the long side even in the ST. 1196 is now the key level.
Depending where ES opens:
First Level Support = ES 1196 (poc) SPY 119.45 (poc)
Second Level Support = 1178.50 1/2R off Oct low, (SPY 118.42)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly to 1.73 from Friday’s 1.61 which was a 32 day low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Still in a weak position below the 1.3635 poc but Momentum turned up for the first time in 20days.
– Dollar Index: Still in a strong position above the 77.05 poc but Momentum turned down for the first time in 20days.
– TLT: Still in a strong position above the 116.34 poc but Momentum turned down for the first time in 20days.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
