pre-open comment Tuesday 30th April
Note: this was posted at 06.20 a.m. est.
Monday’s session generated a higher, wider Value Area. Analysis is positive on both ST and LT timeframes. Significant Selling hasn’t been marked for ten days. Price printing time below the following 1/2R Support levels shown below would now be the first sign of weakness: SPY 156.62; DIA 146.51; IWM 92.04
Dayframe:15dypoc moved to 1581. May provide intraday Support or Resistance.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% Nasdaq 53% R2000 53% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1562 (1/2R off recent high)
Second Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)
Rydex Assets Ratio: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 3.65. Last Thursday’s ratio at 3.27 was the lowest since 4th Jan.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Has stalled at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. If chart can print time above this level it would be stronger price location. Momentum is positive but down.
? Oil USO: Now printing above the 33.10 (1/2R off last year’s low). Next Resistance is 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low). Momentum is negative but up.
? Gold GLD: Has fell steeply earlier this month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
– Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and this month has printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
+ Dollar Index: KEY CHART. Currently ranging and volatile. Is currently printing below the 2month poc at 82.75. LT strong location if it holds above the 81.35 1/2R level.
? EURUSD: Currently printing at the 24mn poc at 1.3070. Momentum is positive but down.
Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index. Charts are mixed but I would say they imply a slight positive bias for equities.
