Posted 09.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 30th July
Monday’s session low was at the First Level Support at 1677.00, see chart. In the ST as long as ES holds above this level it remains in a strong price location.
Dayframe: The very minor 1/2R off last week’s (and July’s) high is 1683 (dashed). This level could be intraday Support or Resistance and give a clue re ST direction.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1677.00 (30dy poc)
2nd Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71%, Nasdaq 72%, R2000 75%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.40. On 07/10 the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed 107.16, its lowest level since Sep 2011. TLT closed on Monday at 107.35. Still a weak looking chart.
Oil USO: Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back up and chart hold 37.31, 1/2R off 2011 high. USO closed below that level on Monday.
Gold GLD: printed a 5week high last week. Momentum is positive but turned down on Monday. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Momentum is positive but turned down on Friday. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc which is weaker price location. Momentum is negative. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and today has printed a 25day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (the 9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
