Pre-open comment Tuesday 31st March
Monday opened just below 2066.50 and immediately rallied with the session generating a Value Area entirely above that level. However overnight ES has retraced the gains and pre-open prints just below the poc, which could be intraday Support or Resistance today. Significant Buying has not been marked for twelve days. Significant Buying marked above 2066.50 would be a positive and suggest further strength.
First Level Resistance = 2066.50 (7mn poc)
First Level Support = ES 2033.50 (previous poc); SPY 205.00 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60% (from 51%), Nasdaq 60% (from 55%), R2000 65% (from 59%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 11.71. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database. SPY has corrected from that point but the ratio has indicated little fear so far. From a contrarian perspective this is not very encouraging. More pessimism would be would be welcome
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: pre-open today is printing very close to 130.75, the 1/2R off the Jan high. In the ST stronger price location is above that level.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Today DX is currently printing above 98.28, the 1/2R off the recent high, which is strong price location in the ST.
Gold GLD: Rallied last week to probe 115.12, the 12mn poc. Time above this level would be a positive but currently chart is down from that test.
Oil USO: pre-open today is printing below 18.39, the 12mn poc.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support earlier this month.