S&P 500 emini pre-open Tuesday 3rd March

posted 09.02 a.m. est

See yesterday’s highlighted comments. ES opened below 2107.00, the 39day poc, and Buyers Reacted immediately (green-at-bottom). Intraday, Support was found at this level (see chart) and later in the session Aggressive Buying was also marked (green-at-top). Sentiment is a concern, see below, but as long as ES holds 2107.00 it is in a strong ST price location.

First Level S/R today = 2107.00 (39day poc)
Second Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66% (unch), Nasdaq 66% (from 64%), R2000 63% (from 59%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 14.06. This is the highest in the database and the first the ratio has been above 14. This is a contrarian indicator.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: reached a new high at the end of January but fell sharply in February. Chart fell on Monday and pre-open today prints close to February’s low. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative but up.
Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since 2003. I have talked about the possibility of a turn here for the dollar but as discussed in last week’s webcast we have seen no confirming evidence from price. See EURUSD below.
Gold GLD: since probing the Resistance at 124.12 (major poc) five weeks ago, GLD has given back nearly all of January’s strong gains. There is Resistance at 117.62, the 1/2R off Nov low.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and fell sharply. Rallied in early February but pre-open today is printing in a weak price location below 18.6, the 1/2R off Jan low.
EURUSD: has been declining since May last year and has reached major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke below it on Thursday.