posted 9.08 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 3rd April
Overnight ES has sold off with the European markets and pre-open has tested down to the First Level Support at 1395. If this Support does not hold it will likely suggest further weakness especially if Significant Sellers are marked below that level. The Rydex ratio is the biggest concern right now, see below.
Dayframe: the minor 1/2R at 1303 (off the April high) may be intraday Support or Resistance today.
First Level Support = 1395 (30dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1366 (45 dy poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 5.64 and this is now the highest ratio in my database. This is concerning as historically this ratio hitting new highs is a real warning for the market and suggests upside is limited at least.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart is currently printing above the four month poc (1.3069) but has printed a 13day low today.
? Dollar Index: was sharply higher yesterday and now prints back above the 5month poc (79.09). 80.15 is the most important level on this chart and if the index can work its way back above that level it would be in a strong price location.
? TLT: was sharply lower yesterday and is printing below 116.22, its major poc. Weakness in Bonds has been a positive for equities for a few years now but it is possible that this inverse relationship is lessening.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon. Particulary need to watch the Dollar Index chart.
