posted 9.55 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 4th December
On Monday I marked both Responsive and Aggressive Selling. The Value Area was overlapping so this cannot be called Effective Selling, even so, new Long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Yesterday’s price action took place above the 1397 major poc so in the longer timeframe this can be classified as Responsive Selling. Bulls would hope that the ES 1397 major poc holds as Support, Significant selling marked below that level would indicate further weakness. In the ST stats suggest that Monday’s low will be tested during today’s session. The 50day poc migrated to 1413.50 and this is now First Level Resistance.
First Level Resistance = ES 1413.50 (50dy poc)
Potential intraday S/R = ES 1408 (6mn poc)
First Level Support = ES 1397 (maj poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53% and Nasdaq 45%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Price location: DIA and QQQ opened above their important 1/2R but immediately sold off and closed below these levels. This was another negative. SPY and IWM held their 1/2R. 1/2R levels for the major equity ETFs: SPY 141.40; IWM 81.55; DIA 130.45; QQQ 65.95
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 3.06. On Friday 16th Nov the ratio reached 2.57 which was the lowest since 7th June.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ EURUSD: Has today printed a 27day high. Resistance at 1.3117 (24mn poc) may come into play again here – chart failed at this level in September and again in October.
+ Dollar Index: Chart now prints below 80.15 which is weak price location.
+ TLT: Chart now prints below 125.13 (1/2R off July high) which is weak price location.
imo these charts imply a positive bias for equities.
