posted 08.44 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Tuesday 4th February
On Monday I marked Aggressive Selling. These red-at-bottom lows are usually retested within a day (or two). Early in the session IWM broke below 110.87 and this signalled further weakness, see yesterday’s highlighted comments.
First Level Resistance = 1758.00 (prev poc and Dec low)
Stock index ETFs: All four ETFs have Momentum (PriceOsc) down and negative. Key charts/levels are DIA 152.70 = 12mn Support, QQQ 82.93 = 4mn Support.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 25% (from 41%), Nasdaq 35% (from 47%), R2000 27% (from 40%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was only slightly lower at 6.30 (it was lower than this last week). This is historically still very high. Not much fear registering here yet. VIX however, spiked to a close of 21.44, the highest in more than a year. On 16th Jan the Rydex ratio reached 7.5 which is the highest ratio in my database, registering extreme optimism and a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: printed a 6mn high on Monday. Technical Oscillators register overbought but Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: Tested the June low late December and has rallied from there but remains in a weak price location.
Oil USO: Printing back above the 3yr poc (34.13) in a stronger price location.
Dollar Index: currently holding above the important 80.15 level with the maj poc at 79.76. Strong price location if it holds. Further positive would be Momentum turning up.
EURUSD: Recently broke out to a two year high but this was rejected and price reversed. On Friday chart broke below the Support at 1.3524 (9mn poc) and today prints just below this level.
