Pre-open Tuesday 4th May
Yesterday’s comments are relevant.
First Level Support at 1183.50 and First Level Resistance at 1202.5 pretty much capped the low and high on Monday so there was no clue to the strength of directional conviction from Buyers or Sellers.
Note that on Tuesday and Friday last week when the Sellers were marked, the Value Areas were lower and wider and volume picked up. On Thursday and Monday when ES bounced the Value Areas were narrower and volume contracted. This suggests that the Sellers are more Effective at the moment and imo the Sellers are in control of the dayframe. This will change if I mark Effective Buying above 1183.50.
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 2.9. The Rydex timers are optimistic and confident that holding on will bring reward. That is not ST bullish.
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
+ USDJPY: prints above the 93.60 1/2 level but negative divergence.
– EURUSD: new low today; momentum and trend down.
– UDX: momentum and trend up.
– TLT: broke above 90.50 poc; momentum and trend up.
In the main these charts are bearish for equities
