posted 9.00 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 4th September
Last week I marked no Significant Buying or Selling. Two levels are currently attracting time. Significant Buying marked above 1408.50 would indicate higher and Significant Selling marked below 1398.50 would indicate lower. Price printing between these levels does not currently give us any useful information.
Friday’s Close was within Mon-Wed Range so there is no bias on this timeframe. The Chartprofit Market Timing System turned neutral for Nyse and remained positive for Nasdaq and UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse = 67; Nasdaq = 56.
Stock Index ETFs, momentum indicators (eg Price Oscillator) are heading lower and for Bond ETFs momentum indicators are heading higher. Both are currently in a relatively strong price location. Hopefully this week either equities will move stronger and Bonds weaker (or vice versa) relative to their poc levels which will give us a better idea of ST direction.
First Level Resistance = 1408.50 (poc)
First Level Support = 1398.50 (poc)
Sentiment: Some Sentiment indicators are pushing towards readings that would indicate too much optimism but generally that condition hasn’t been reached yet. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.80. Recent high was 5.13 ON 08/21 which was the highest level since 3rd May. VIX hit a five year low at 13.3 on 08/17 – closed Friday at 17.47.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: w/e 17th Aug the 6month poc migrated lower to 1.2285. Chart held that level early last week and rallied. Chart printed a two month high last week.
+ Dollar Index: Recently the 6month poc migrated down to 82.52. Chart prints below that level.
– TLT: Key Chart. the 5month poc migrated to 125.93 in August and the chart recovered back above that level last week which puts it in a stronger price location. Price back below that level would be weak location.
imo it is difficult to imply a bias for equities from these charts.
